Speculations on Human Population

Transition from a non creative to a creative being.

We must conclude that, at some point in the past, man discovered that he had the power to use directed thought to produce solutions to problems. This transition likely produced a nomadic creature, one whose primary response to new problems was to migrate. Before this time, man was apparently confined to the rift valley in Africa, presumably bound by natural features, desert, ocean, jungle, to this small space. Man probably got his start here because of the happy coincidence of the equator and the long series of fresh water lakes from Lake Albert to Lake Malawi, guaranteeing a ready supply of water and food. Animals migrate, but are easily frustrated by natural barriers. When man became creative, perhaps due to overpopulation of the rift valley with humans, he was able to envisage possible solutions to geographic barriers, he was able to create a mental map and alter his movements according to his understanding of geography. This will have allowed him to envision and succeed in migrating, first to Egypt and thence east and west around the Mediterranean Sea, and then to spread over the entire globe. Being dependent on the natural food production of the earth, his population density was rather thin, except in particularly advantageous places, generally near the equator. This creativity extended to the production of boats, with which he succeeded in migrating even to Fiji and Hawaii. All of this migration will have depended on population pressure as its motivating force.
We might suppose that this event occurred about 10,000 years ago or simultaneously with the beginning of the current interglacial age, which began with a 13 degree increase in global temperature within 50 years and led to, up until now, an unprecedented period of 10,000 years of stable and warm temperatures. On the other hand, perhaps it happened 120,000 years ago during another period of even greater warmth than we now enjoy. These time frames are as nothing to geological time. Human like remains go back at least 3 million years, the dinosaurs occurred 200 million years ago and an occurrence of a humanoid footprint occurring concurrently with a dinosaur footprint seems to have been found, living coral goes back 370 million years, rocks appear to have been created on earth as long as four billion years ago. This is a significant fraction of the current estimate of the age of the universe, about 9-14 billion years.

Transition from nomad to farmer.

This transition must have been induced by overpopulation. When there is plenty of land to go around, it is much easier to move to another locale than to contend for land with another group. When there is no place to move to, a new scheme is necessary to decide who gets to live where and that scheme will be property ownership. This idea entails certain difficulties. When one is nomadic and the land does not provide enough resources to live on, one moves to a place that does. When that potential for movement is eliminated, artificial means must be employed to enhance production of the means to continue life, that is one must farm. We can say that, at the point in time that man decided to farm, he was responding to a perception that the land did not naturally produce enough to allow all humans to continue to live. There are only two responses to this perception, reduced population which will naturally occur if no intervention is attempted, or artificial enhancement of the production of food resources.
This event would seem to have happened in three or four places more or less simultaneously: along the Nile, between the Tigris and Euphrates, along the Yangtze and/or Yellow rivers, and perhaps along the Ganges. It did not happen along the Amazon, Mississippi, or Danube rivers. It would seem to have happened at about the time of the enslavement of the Jews by the Egyptians, or about 5,000 years ago. The only recorded description of these times is to be found in the Biblical description of Joshua's entry with the Jews into Canaan. Abraham would seem to be the author of this strategy.

Transition from non precision to precision technology.

Farming allowed man to create three high density populations, Europe, India, and China. But, eventually saturation arrived and population pressure once again mounted and one of these civilizations, having most extensively developed its creative potential, discovered methods by which high precision technology became possible. These methods mainly involved manufacture of suitable alloys and from these materials precision tools which allowed the production of efficient machines, first the chronometer which freed navigation (see the currently popular book: Longitude by Dara Sobel from Penguin) and then the piston engine which allowed for efficient high speed movement. The pursuit of a more and more efficient gun apparently is responsible for motivating this development. To get to a repeating rifle and then to mass produce it, required the development of precision manufacturing methods. With these tools worldwide high density population became possible in the temperate regions.
We, of course, know that this occurred about 200 years ago, more or less concurrently with the establishment of the US.

The present

In our times, population pressure is once again mounting, precision technology having been fully exploited. So, in the past we first used migration to open up new land resources as a method of dealing with overpopulation and when that failed we resorted to farming, which is to say increased efficiency, and then precision technology, which again opened up new territory. Where can we go from here? If the cycle repeats itself, efficiency would seem to be the answer.
Continued immigration into the non temperate regions of the earth, or under the ocean, isn't likely because the cost of the energy needed to maintain large populations under these conditions will be too high, unless some inexpensive source of energy is forthcoming, of which there is currently no sign. Emigration into space cannot be done in any economical way for the same reasons, so that we must conclude that emigration as a solution to overpopulation is probably not feasible. There is still some potential for farming the ocean, perhaps. The problems would seem to involve compensation. How can fish stock ownership be maintained so that the farmers will be able to sell their produce. How to keep the fish from deserting the farm and other beings, human or otherwise, from raiding. Some form of fencing might be possible, and patrolling might keep poachers away. As for living space, there is no land left anywhere that is not owned by someone, so that all future increases in population will produce larger more densely populated cities. There is also growing resistance to adding area to cities so that probably the only realistic answer is high rise building.
All in all, the potential does not seem to be great. Nothing like the results produced by earlier innovations. Not to mention that the impact of high density population on the environment is particularly discouraging. So, we must also entertain the possibility that population reduction is called for due to the realization that population growth is a dead end.