My Reaction to Kaplan

Every third world city is now surrounded by millions of poverty stricken people living in hand made hovels. This is equally true in Mexico City, Bombay, Rio De Janeiro, Cairo, Istanbul from my own experience (viewing on TV or reading reports of other writers) to name each of the continents. The only places it isn't true are Europe, North America north of the Rio Grande, Australia, and the more wealthy far eastern countries. But, the US is more and more characterized as having wandering homeless populations attached to major cities that intimidate tourists and steal for their livelihoods. This situation has arisen only since mid century, so it is recent and rapid in its development. It is slow enough, however, that people get used to the idea before hearing of the next problem.

Western Africa, over the last ten years has sunk into lawlessness and chaos, with ineffective governments full of corruption, refugee populations streaming hither and yon and back again, endemic war flaring first here then there and then back again. Approximately every resident of these countries is ill. Many are dying from malnourishment and AIDS. This situation has rapidly arisen since mid century and coincides with replacement of colonial governments with local politicians, which no doubt exacerbates the problem but does not sufficiently explain it.

Thousands of Bangladeshis die every storm season due to the density of population and the flimsy nature of their living quarters and the tendency of the river, from which they get their livelihood, to flood while at the same time the Bay of Bengal provides them with continuous tornadoes and hurricanes, and more ordinary deluges.

The former USSR has dissolved into a large number of feuding states with barely enough food to sustain them and daunting environmental problems throughout. From dying seas to industrially polluted water and land and air to nuclear pollution in various spots resulting from inadequate controls on dangerous technology. Crime is endemic and government, ineffective. War is more or less constant in the Caucasus region. So, the problems of west Africa are rising in this formerly first world nation.

South east Asia has fallen into more or less peaceful times since the end of the warring mid century. But, this was achieved by installing authoritarian communist/socialist governments, throughout. The result is continuous refugee problems in all surrounding countries, particularly Hong Kong. This solution has also worked in China for the time being. The socialist government of India is in a state of perpetual crisis, however. So, in the near future, we might reasonable predict Africa's disease in the whole of Asia, with the exception of certain isolated and mostly offshore and wealthy countries.

Due to Mexico's corrupt and inefficient government, the economy of that country declines ever more rapidly, heading for disaster while we are fending it off ever more feebly with infusions of capital. This results in an ever more insistent tide of Mexicans heading north.

Central and South America have witnessed flirtations with bankruptcy, the devastation of the rain forest, powerful drug cartels, military dictatorships, terrorism from both the right and the left. The apparent plan of the native population is to solve the problem of white invasion by out propagating them and then killing them off.

The wealthy western countries aren't escaping either. All of them are experiencing rampant drug abuse mostly confined to the poor and affluent unemployed. Crime is on the rise everywhere. Illegitimacy is rampant. Economies are stagnant while social welfare costs and unemployment are on the rise. 10% unemployment is the most common number. All problems except unemployment are worst in the US.

The middle East is awash in terrorism, fundamentalism, anarchic governments, wealthy oil magnates, export of revolution, war and rumors of war, underground attempts to develop weapons of mass destruction.

Even the rich countries of the far East, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore are at risk. Japan was overpopulated when discovered by the West, Hong Kong is vastly overpopulated, the most overpopulated island in the world is just on the horizon for Singapore and Taiwan is expanding its population, on an island that is only habitable at the coastline, as fast as can be imagined.

It should be clear that this description is exactly what one would expect to see in an overpopulated world. Nonetheless, overpopulation is largely undiscussed, unbelieved in. In fact, the greatest effort of self delusion ever experienced in the history of civilization, at least, is now inescapably the case. Most people, were they to read this essay would pooh, pooh it and ascribe the difficulties here described as more or less typical of human life on this planet and therefore unlikely to lead to any more startling changes than have frequently come about in the past. By which they mean, refugees and wars for others to contend with and general tranquillity at home, as far as one can see.

So, what is to be expected? A hardening of the border between the US and Mexico, and a revival of the iron curtain. Not, this time, to separate Russia from the decadent west, but to keep Asians in Asia. This will effectively isolate the affluent west from the third world, which will progressively destroy itself as the west looks on. How this will effect westerners is unknown. But, one could predict further increases in drug use in an attempt to hide the sight from viewer's psyches. Trade will have to go on, of course, but, the third world will protect its end. The only danger emanating from this will be unexpected imports from the third world, like disease and contaminations of one sort or another. Terrorism will presumably continue and intensify. A terrorist nuclear bomb seems inescapable.

The west will have overpopulation problems too, shortages in water supplies, pollution of all varieties, refugees, etc., but probably not at such a level as to cause infrastructure breakdown, for a while yet.

The most interesting issue here, from a psychological perspective is the denial question. Just what are the mechanisms at work?

Probably the most common is a combination of the following: an inability to connect the events that we are seeing. An inability to believe that a kindly God could allow such things to happen. And the reassuring sight of miles of open space in this country. This accounts for the liberal leadership of the country.

For the Christian right, it will be a little different: a belief in the inevitability of The Book of Revelation manifesting itself, and the certainty that were man to interfere, he would make it worse. An absolute partitioning of the life and death of man as God's responsibility, and the certainty that man can do no other, in this situation, if he acts, than to usurp God's prerogatives, and finally, the certainty that whatever comes, heaven awaits the believer.

Finally slight of hand is also at work. Rush Limbaugh has a segment where he gets Charlton Heston to read a passage from Jurassic Park by Crichton to the effect that man can in no way impose devastation on nature, due to its resiliency and ability to adapt to any circumstances that arise. No doubt true, but that isn't the question. The question is the survival of man.

And then there are the Fonda technologists, who believe that the great god, technology, can save us. These are the people involved in ZPG, for instance. They are as self delusional as all the rest. How can one believe that the problem is the solution? No, if man performs a miracle and solves this problem, it will involve much more profound changes than those envisioned by the UN.